Deoleo, the world's largest olive oil company, has announced that the period of extreme volatility in the olive oil market, which spanned from 2022 to 2024, is now 'definitively' over, ushering in a new phase of stability. This shift is attributed to favorable rainfall trends in major producing nations such as Spain, which have led to a more robust and balanced global supply for the upcoming harvest, according to CEO Cristóbal Valdés [1].
During the previous three-year window, severe droughts and intense heat across southern Europe devastated olive oil harvests, resulting in a dramatic price surge that impacted both industry veterans and consumers. However, olive oil prices have since moderated, with extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) prices in Spain currently at about 3.9 euros ($4.47) per kilogram, a significant decrease from the record high of 9.3 euros per kilogram in January 2024, as reported by the European Commission's latest weekly data [1].
The stabilization of supply has led to greater predictability across the value chain and is fostering a recovery in global household demand. In particular, U.S. sales volumes have improved, with the number of olive oil purchasing households increasing across all income brackets. Deoleo attributes part of this growth to a packaging redesign, highlighting the importance of consumer-focused innovation in expanding market share [1].
Analysts remain cautious about the potential for global olive oil supplies to swing dramatically from season to season due to ongoing challenges such as climate change, water scarcity, and pest and disease pressures. Nevertheless, Valdés emphasized that innovation tailored to modern culinary habits, especially among younger consumers and those new to olive oil, is emerging as a primary market driver [1].
CONCLUSION
Deoleo's announcement signals a return to stability in the olive oil market, with prices falling and demand recovering, particularly in the U.S. While analysts warn of ongoing risks, the company is optimistic about future growth driven by innovation and consumer trends. The market is expected to remain more predictable in the near term, supporting a positive outlook for industry participants.