Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to near a three-month low as uncertainty grows over the prospects of a U.S.-Iran agreement to fully reopen the critical Middle East oil export corridor [1]. According to CNBC's analysis of Kpler data, the five-day average for vessel transits stood at around 13 on Tuesday, which is almost the lowest level since May 12 and represents a 90% decline from the pre-conflict daily average of 130 ships before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 [1].
Despite the sharp drop in ship numbers, Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that oil exports through Hormuz have reached a seven-day average of nearly 9 million barrels per day, as tankers continue to transit the strait with U.S. military assistance. Including pipelines, total oil exports from Gulf states are averaging about 15 million barrels per day, compared to 20 million barrels per day before the war [1]. Wright also noted that private businesses may undercount ship departures due to covert movements through the waterway [1].
Iran's top national security official, Mohsen Rezaei, asserted that the Strait of Hormuz will not open fully until Washington agrees to Tehran's demands, according to PressTV [1]. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a deal could be imminent, which triggered an oil sell-off, but no agreement has been reached [1]. The U.S. and Iran had signed an interim deal on June 17, briefly boosting ship crossings to a five-day average of about 60 on June 26. However, the agreement collapsed amid disputes over undefined shipping routes, leading to renewed attacks and a U.S. naval blockade [1].
President Donald Trump has recently shifted back to diplomatic efforts, but the extent of progress remains unclear. As of Tuesday, ship traffic was still about 80% below the post-deal peak [1].
CONCLUSION
The collapse of the U.S.-Iran interim deal and ongoing tensions have sharply reduced ship traffic and oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy chokepoint. Market uncertainty remains high, with no clear resolution in sight and significant implications for oil supply and prices.