Gold (XAU/USD) prices retreated during the North American session on Friday, following US President Donald Trump's announcement that the ceasefire with Iran is 'over,' despite the resumption of US-Iran talks. The XAU/USD pair traded at approximately $4,103, marking a 0.48% decline, and is set to end the week down 0.51% amid escalating conflict risks [1]. Trump's statement, posted on Truth Social, indicated that while talks with Iran would continue, the ceasefire had officially ended, which contributed to increased volatility in the markets [1].
Following Trump's comments, US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year T-note up 2 basis points to 4.569%. This surge was driven by concerns that renewed hostilities could push energy prices higher, potentially fueling inflation and prompting further interest rate hikes [1]. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained firm at 100.94, erasing earlier losses, as investors sought safety in the dollar [1]. Money markets now price in an 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September meeting, while the odds for a hike at the July 29 meeting remain below 34%, according to Prime Terminal data [1].
The US economic docket was relatively light, with the release of the FOMC's last meeting minutes revealing that officials remain concerned about inflation, and a 'few participants' see the case for a rate hike [1]. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, below estimates and previous readings, signaling continued labor market stability [1]. Investors are now focused on next week's US inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress [1].
Technically, gold remains bearish, trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,493, with momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in bearish territory. The market structure shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting further downside risk. Key support levels are identified at $4,021 (July 8 swing low), $3,941 (June 30 swing low), and $3,886 (October 28, 2025 swing low). If gold breaks above the downslope resistance near $4,200, it could challenge the $4,300 level, with the next resistance at the 200-day SMA [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold prices have declined in response to renewed geopolitical tensions and expectations of higher US interest rates, with technical indicators pointing to continued bearish momentum. Market participants are closely watching upcoming US inflation data and Fed testimony for further direction. The overall sentiment remains negative for gold, with heightened volatility and downside risks prevailing.