The Euro (EUR) trimmed earlier gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday but remained above previous highs at the 186.32 level, trading at its highest in nearly three months. This movement comes as investors await the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision, with expectations that the ECB will keep its Deposit Facility Rate at 2.25% and potentially signal openness to further tightening due to rising oil prices and inflationary pressures [1]. Technical indicators show EUR/JPY trading at 186.44 with a bullish bias, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65 and the MACD remains slightly positive, suggesting constructive upside momentum. Resistance is noted at 186.65 and further at 187.44-187.55, while support is seen at 186.30 and 185.78 [1].
Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its losses for a third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD), with NZD/USD falling below 0.5800 after being rejected at 0.5875 earlier in the week. The decline is attributed to higher oil prices and escalating Middle East tensions, which have overshadowed the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Brent Oil surpassed $90 per barrel for the first time in six weeks, shifting investor focus from inflation to concerns about economic growth and limiting central banks' ability to tighten policy further [2]. Technical analysis indicates NZD/USD is trading just below 0.5800, with the RSI at 35 and the MACD slightly negative, hinting at waning downside momentum. Key support is at 0.5750, with further downside targets at 0.5675 if this level is breached. Upside attempts have been capped below 0.5825, with resistance at 0.5855-0.5875 [2].
Currency heat maps from both articles show the Euro was strongest against the New Zealand Dollar, while the New Zealand Dollar was strongest against the Japanese Yen [1][2]. The Yen remains broadly offered due to the wide divergence between Bank of Japan policy and other major central banks, despite reports that the BoJ may accelerate monetary normalization, though investors remain skeptical [1].
No explicit forward-looking analyst opinions are provided, but the articles highlight that central bank decisions and geopolitical developments, particularly oil price movements and Middle East tensions, are key factors influencing currency markets at present [1][2].
CONCLUSION
The Euro maintains a bullish stance against the Yen ahead of the ECB decision, while the New Zealand Dollar faces pressure from rising oil prices and geopolitical risks. Market sentiment is cautious, with central bank policy and energy market developments driving currency moves. Investors are closely watching for further signals from the ECB and developments in the Middle East.