The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, traded near the 101.00 level on Monday, posting a 0.26% gain for the day at the time of reporting [1]. This upward movement comes amid geopolitical developments, as the US issued a temporary 60-day license permitting Iranian oil sales in the context of ongoing peace negotiations. In response, Iran reportedly agreed to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear inspectors and to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. These actions contributed to a decline in oil prices and alleviated concerns about a broader supply shock, which in turn limited demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset [1].
Market participants are now focused on the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. According to the article, a stronger-than-expected PCE reading could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy and potentially help the DXY retest the 101.00 area. Conversely, a softer PCE print may weigh on the Dollar and prompt profit-taking, especially after the index’s recent climb toward yearly highs [1].
From a technical perspective, the DXY spot price was at 101.01, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it remained above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 100.70 and the 100-period SMA at 99.81. Key horizontal support levels were identified at 100.99, 100.86, and 100.81, reinforcing the constructive technical structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was near 69, indicating strong but increasingly stretched upside momentum. Immediate resistance was noted at 101.06, while a break below 100.99 could expose the 100.86 and 100.81 support band, with further backing from the 20-period SMA at 100.70 and the 100-period SMA at 99.81 [1].
CONCLUSION
The US Dollar Index remains supported near 101.00, buoyed by easing oil supply concerns and anticipation of key US inflation data. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with technical indicators suggesting continued upside momentum but also signaling potential for profit-taking if inflation data disappoints.