Rabobank strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit have kept their Brent Oil price forecasts largely unchanged, projecting an average of $80 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026 and $78 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026 [1]. According to their analysis, crude oil markets have demonstrated resilience despite renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf [1]. However, the strategists emphasize that the outlook for refined products, particularly middle distillates such as diesel, gasoil, jet fuel, and marine gasoil, is more precarious [1].
Rabobank highlights that the primary constraint for middle distillates is not crude oil availability but rather refining and conversion capacity, which has been structurally reduced in the US and Europe since 2019 [1]. The reopening of the Strait would increase crude supply but would not address the shortage of hydrocrackers or reverse the loss of distillate-capable refining capacity [1]. As a result, the bank expects cracks for diesel, jet, and marine fuels to remain elevated even if Brent and WTI prices soften [1].
The strategists note that Gulf refining disruptions, ongoing inventory draws, and lower Russian fuel exports are tightening middle distillate balances, leaving these refined products exposed to potential price spikes [1]. Rabobank is awaiting three key events before making any substantive changes to their oil price forecasts [1].
CONCLUSION
Rabobank maintains a steady outlook for Brent crude prices but warns of heightened risks for refined products due to refining constraints and supply disruptions. The market should monitor middle distillate balances closely, as these products remain vulnerable to price volatility even if crude prices stabilize.