West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil price, declined for the fourth consecutive day, dropping to an over one-week low during the Asian session on Monday. After opening with a modest gap-up to the $96.55-$96.60 region, WTI fell to just below the $94.00 mark, representing a decrease of nearly 1.50% for the day [1].
The price drop was primarily attributed to Saudi Arabia's announcement that the East-West pipeline, previously shut down due to a drone attack, is expected to return to about half its capacity within days. This anticipated recovery in Saudi shipments has eased supply concerns, exerting downward pressure on crude oil prices [1]. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, specifically intensifying fighting between the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, continue to maintain a geopolitical risk premium, which is helping to limit further downside in oil prices [1].
From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a constructive bullish bias, trading above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $85.14. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-September upswing, near $91.13, is providing support for the recent advance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 56.0, indicating moderate positive momentum, although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally negative, suggesting the uptrend may be maturing but remains supported [1].
Key support levels are identified at $91.13 (38.2% Fibo. retracement), $87.80 (50.0% retracement), and $84.47 (61.8% retracement), with the 100-day SMA at $85.14 reinforcing this demand zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is at $95.25 (23.6% retracement), and a sustained break above this level could trigger further bullish momentum towards the recent swing high at $101.91 [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI crude oil prices have come under pressure due to the expected recovery in Saudi supply, but ongoing geopolitical risks and technical support levels are helping to limit further declines. The overall market sentiment remains cautiously bullish, with key technical indicators suggesting the uptrend is intact despite recent losses.