The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its policy rate at 0.00% during its June meeting, a decision that was widely anticipated by both Nomura and market consensus [1]. The SNB reiterated its increased willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets if necessary to curb Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciation pressures, a guidance first introduced at the previous meeting [1]. In a slight adjustment to its language, the SNB stated it would intervene 'if necessary,' reflecting the recent depreciation of the CHF against the euro since March. Chairman Schlegel acknowledged at the press conference that this change in wording was appropriate given the currency's movement [1].
The SNB also revised its conditional inflation forecast for 2026 upward to 0.6%, compared to the previous estimate of 0.5%, citing pressures from higher energy prices [1]. Despite this adjustment, the central bank views medium-term inflationary pressures as virtually unchanged from its earlier outlook [1]. Inflation remains comfortably within the SNB's 0–2% target range, which, according to Nomura, provides the central bank with some breathing space and reduces the urgency to consider lowering rates into negative territory [1].
On the economic front, the SNB highlighted the resilience of the Swiss economy, noting ongoing risks such as the Iran war, but maintained its expectation for GDP growth to be around 1% for 2026 [1]. Nomura expects the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% for the foreseeable future, given the current inflation and economic outlook [1].
CONCLUSION
The SNB's decision to hold rates steady and maintain a flexible stance on FX intervention signals confidence in Switzerland's economic resilience and inflation outlook. With inflation within target and only marginally higher projections, the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, providing stability for markets.