Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux reports that the EUR/USD currency pair has staged a modest rebound after forming an interim low near 1.1325, moving back into its previous trading range. This suggests that the earlier breakdown lacked significant follow-through, and the euro has found some stability as market volatility around oil prices subsides [1].
However, Broux emphasizes that the recent pivot high at 1.1475/1.1500 represents a critical resistance level. The bank notes that overcoming this barrier is essential for the euro to extend its current bounce. Without a clear break above this resistance, there are no strong signals of a larger upward move in the near term [1].
On the downside, Societe Generale warns that a drop below the recent pivot low at 1.1390 could risk resuming the broader downtrend for the euro. The article also highlights significant option expiries clustered between 1.1370-1.1385 (€1.3 billion) and 1.1400-1.1450 (€6.5 billion), which could influence near-term price action [1].
Looking ahead, the market is focused on upcoming US economic data releases, including CPI and PPI, as well as Warsh's semi-annual testimony next week, which could further impact EUR/USD dynamics [1].
CONCLUSION
The euro's recent rebound against the US dollar remains constrained by key resistance at 1.1475/1.1500, with downside risks if support at 1.1390 fails. Market participants are closely watching upcoming US economic data and option expiries, which may determine the next directional move for EUR/USD.